Turn Low-Cost CO₂ into 25–50% More SAF & Renewable Diesel—Profitably

The global push toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel and renewable diesel is accelerating, but underneath the momentum there is a quieter reality that many developers recognize immediately once they begin detailed design work.

Most systems are leaving carbon on the table.

Whether the project is based on dairy biogas, landfill gas, or biomass gasification, a significant portion of the carbon entering the plant is tied up as CO₂. In conventional process configurations, that CO₂ can’t be treated as a meaningful contributor to fuel production. It is removed, diluted, recycled at energy cost, or simply tolerated as part of the process gas.

The consequence is structural inefficiency. Plants that appear viable at a high level begin to struggle under closer scrutiny because only a fraction of the available carbon is ultimately converted into liquid fuels. The rest is effectively discarded.

This inefficiency does not just show up in carbon accounting. It shows up directly in economics. Less carbon conversion means lower fuel yield per unit of feed, which in turn drives up the effective cost of production and tightens already narrow margins.

A different approach begins by asking a simple question: what if CO₂ were not treated as waste at all? What if CO₂ were treated at the same feedstock value as methane?

HYCO1’s CUBE™ reforming technology is built around the idea that CO₂ should be treated as a usable carbon source, not an inert byproduct. Instead of designing the system to work around CO₂, the process integrates it directly into the reforming environment alongside methane and steam.

In practical terms, this allows CO₂ to be converted into carbon monoxide, which then feeds directly into downstream Fischer–Tropsch synthesis. The carbon that would otherwise be lost is instead incorporated into the fuel molecule itself.

The technology has demonstrated high levels of CO₂ conversion in real operating environments, with commercial data showing greater than 85 percent conversion even under constrained conditions. Under optimized configurations, utilization can exceed 95 percent. At the same time, the process maintains the flexibility to produce the specific H₂:CO ratios required for downstream synthesis, delivering chemical-grade syngas in a single step.

What emerges is a fundamentally different carbon balance. Instead of methane being the sole contributor to product carbon, CO₂ becomes an active participant in fuel production.

The transition from concept to reality is where most new approaches struggle. In HYCO1’s case, the validation comes from a fully integrated SAF project.

At Agra Energy’s 50 barrel-per-day commercial demonstration facility in Wisconsin, the feedstock is typical of many biogas systems, consisting of roughly 60 percent methane and 40 percent CO₂. The reforming section itself is not exotic. It is a conventional can-style steam methane reformer, the kind of equipment that has been used across industry for decades.

What changed was the catalyst and the approach to CO₂.

After installing HYCO1’s CUBE™ catalyst and recommissioning the system, the plant achieved sustained operation exceeding 3,000 hours while converting more than 85 percent of the incoming CO₂. Just as importantly, the operation remained stable, with no indication that CO₂ utilization introduced instability or sensitivity that would limit real-world deployment.

It is worth noting that this facility was not designed to maximize CO₂ utilization. The feed ratio was fixed, and the system lacked the ability to supplement methane or rebalance carbon inputs. In other words, the plant was operating under constraints that limited its theoretical potential.

Even so, it demonstrated something that has been missing from the industry: CO₂ can be converted into productive carbon at commercial scale without requiring a fundamentally new plant design.

The economic implications of this shift are straightforward once the carbon flows are understood.

In a conventional system, increasing fuel production requires increasing methane input. Methane is the primary cost driver in many projects, whether it is sourced as natural gas or upgraded biomethane. CO₂, by contrast, is often available at little or no cost, particularly in biogas and landfill applications.

When CO₂ is converted into CO and incorporated into the product slate, it effectively displaces a significant portion of the methane requirement. The system behaves as expected with access to an additional, low-cost carbon feedstock.

At Agra scale, this translates into a meaningful shift in value. The converted CO₂ contributes directly to fuel production, increasing total output while reducing the effective cost of carbon input. When framed in familiar terms, the contribution of CO₂ begins to resemble a renewable methane feedstock equivalent on the order of fifteen dollars per MMBTU.

This is not because CO₂ suddenly becomes expensive, but because its conversion creates incremental product value that would otherwise require additional methane. The plant produces more fuel from the same inlet conditions, and that additional fuel carries real market value (and potentially real carbon credit value).

The Agra Energy case illustrates this impact directly.

The most visible outcome of CO₂ utilization is increased fuel production. In a traditional reforming system, only methane contributes carbon to the final product. With CUBE™, both methane and CO₂ contribute.

This expands the available carbon pool without requiring additional feedstock; while greatly reducing emissions lowering carbon intensity of the resulting fuel. As a result, the same inlet stream can produce significantly more liquid fuel.

Across a range of modeled and observed conditions, this effect translates into a 25 to 50 percent increase in fuel yield. The exact value depends on feed composition, operating conditions, and downstream integration, but the direction is consistent.

At a system level, this also improves overall carbon efficiency. Instead of converting only a portion of the feed carbon into product, the system can approach near-complete utilization, with up to 98 percent of feed carbon ending up in the final product slate under optimal conditions.

The reduction in wasted carbon is matched by a measurable reduction in energy intensity. In conventional reforming systems, a significant portion of CO₂ is either removed or carried through the process without contributing to product formation, effectively diluting the reaction environment and increasing the fired duty required per unit of useful syngas. By integrating CO₂ directly into the reaction pathway, CUBE™ reforming converts that CO₂ into CO in situ, increasing the fraction of feed carbon that contributes to fuel production. The incorporation not only increased carbon utilization from the feed stream as well as overall yield, but also reduces emissions that results in a lower carbon intensity fuel.

At the system level, this translates into up to ~25% lower energy consumption per unit of synthetic fuel produced, as observed in HYCO1 benchmarking of integrated FT systems. In parallel, overall carbon conversion to final products can approach ~98% under optimized conditions, meaning that a greater share of the input carbon is converted without requiring additional heat input or downstream processing. The net effect is that more fuel is produced per unit of fired duty, rather than simply reducing absolute furnace load, which is the more meaningful metric for project economics.

If the Agra project demonstrates feasibility, landfill gas illustrates scale.

A typical landfill gas stream contains roughly equal parts methane and CO₂. In conventional systems, only half of that carbon is effectively utilized for fuel production. The rest is removed or at best remains underutilized.

With CO₂ conversion enabled, the picture changes dramatically. A large fraction of that previously unused carbon becomes available for syngas generation and downstream synthesis.

The result is a substantial shift in output by simply utilizing the gas stream that already exists.

Biomass gasification already carries strong carbon credentials. The feedstock is renewable, the CI score is low, and the policy tailwinds are favorable. But these systems often produce syngas streams that contain significant amounts of CO₂ along with imbalanced H₂:CO ratios - meaning achieving the desired composition for Fischer–Tropsch synthesis typically requires additional processing steps, each adding cost and complexity. Carbon efficiency is where the economics of these projects are ultimately won or lost.

Integrating CO₂ conversion into the reforming step provides a more direct solution. By converting CO₂ into CO while adjusting the hydrogen balance, the system can produce a syngas stream that is closer to the optimal composition for downstream synthesis.

The effect is twofold. First, more of the original biomass carbon is converted into liquid fuel, increasing overall yield from a fixed feedstock base. Second, the process becomes simpler and more efficient. By converting CO₂ directly within the reforming step and producing a more balanced, synthesis-ready syngas, the system can reduce or eliminate the need for downstream syngas conditioning steps that are often required in biomass-derived systems, such as extensive CO₂ removal or ratio adjustment.

This simplification has practical implications beyond process elegance. Fewer purification and conditioning steps translate into lower capital investment, reduced parasitic energy consumption, and improved overall plant reliability. In effect, the value of CO₂ utilization is captured not only in higher fuel output, but also in a more streamlined process configuration with tangible benefits to both CapEx and OpEx.

The ability to incorporate CO₂ into the product slate has a direct and quantifiable impact on carbon intensity. In conventional systems, CO₂ is either removed or carried through the process without contributing to product formation. In contrast, CUBE™ reforming converts a significant fraction of that CO₂ into carbon monoxide, which is then incorporated into Fischer–Tropsch synthesis.

In practical terms, this allows up to ~30% of the carbon in the final fuel product to originate from captured or recycled CO₂ under realistic operating configurations. At the same time, overall carbon conversion to final products can approach ~98% under optimized conditions, minimizing carbon losses across the system. The combination of high utilization and CO₂ incorporation directly lowers lifecycle emissions, not through offset mechanisms, but through the fundamental chemistry of the process.

This structural advantage is reflected in the resulting fuel carbon intensity. HYCO1 benchmarking of integrated systems indicates that synthetic fuels produced via CUBE™ reforming can achieve carbon intensity values on the order of ~0 to 30 gCO₂e/MJ, depending on feedstock and configuration. These values are competitive with or better than many policy-driven pathways, but are achieved without reliance on external carbon credits or incentives.

As a result, the process creates a durable pathway to low-carbon fuels that remains economically viable even as policy frameworks evolve. The reduction in carbon intensity is not an added cost, but a direct outcome of improved carbon utilization, aligning environmental performance with underlying process economics.

As projects increase in size, the value of CO₂ utilization becomes more pronounced, both in absolute throughput and in its impact on project economics. At smaller scales such as the 50 BPD Agra facility, incremental CO₂ conversion translates into a few million dollars per year in added fuel value. At larger scales, the same mechanism compounds quickly. For example, in a 1,000 BPD–class facility, a 25–40% increase in fuel yield enabled by CO₂ utilization can correspond to tens of millions of dollars in incremental annual revenue, assuming typical SAF and renewable diesel pricing.

At the same time, capital efficiency improves with scale. HYCO1 benchmarking shows total installed capital decreasing from approximately $570,000 per barrel per day at 50 BPD to roughly $180,000–$300,000 per barrel per day at multi-thousand BPD scale. This reduction is driven by conventional economies of scale, but CO₂ utilization amplifies the benefit by increasing output without a proportional increase in front-end reforming capacity. In effect, more product is generated from the same core infrastructure.

The interaction between these effects is what makes CO₂ utilization particularly powerful at scale. Higher carbon conversion, which can approach ~98% under optimized conditions, increases the fraction of feed carbon that becomes product, while the 25–50% uplift in fuel yield spreads both capital and operating costs across a larger production base. The result is a lower effective cost per gallon of fuel, rather than simply a larger plant.

Taken together, these factors create a reinforcing economic effect. Larger plants not only produce more fuel in absolute terms, but they do so with higher carbon efficiency, lower capital intensity per unit of output, and improved overall project returns.

The broader significance of this approach extends beyond any single project.

For decades, CO₂ has been treated as an unavoidable byproduct of fuel production. Entire process designs have been built around minimizing its impact rather than leveraging its potential.

CUBE™ reforming challenges the status quo by demonstrating that CO₂ can be converted efficiently, integrated seamlessly, and scaled economically, all in well-proven mechanical designs.

The implication is simple but profound. The limiting factor in fuel production is not the availability of carbon, but the efficiency with which that carbon is utilized.

By unlocking the value of CO₂ that is already present in biogas, landfill gas, and biomass systems, this approach enables higher yields, stronger economics, and lower carbon intensity fuel products.

In doing so, it reframes CO₂ from a liability into an asset and opens a pathway for the next generation of SAF and renewable diesel projects to compete not just on sustainability, but on fundamental process efficiency and actual cost.